Risk management

I am tempted right here to start spewing statistics. That's all well and good. And you can read all about that right here. But what I want to really focus on is what to do with this knowledge. 



So you know that betting on the flush draw on the river is a 1 in 4 proposition. Do you call or fold? That's the practical side of knowing all these stats.


So ok, what? Do I call or do I fold? The simple answer is, it depends. Risk management, remember. It really depends on what the other players will do. If they check and I get a free look, that's just perfect, I would check too (and not raise). Raise all-in, if I am going against one player who is on a last desperate move to stay in the game, and all his chips is less than 10% of my chips? I'd call in an instant. But otherwise, I usually fold. This is playing smart. But hey, I am human too. I don't always play smart. Sometimes I just have to play on gut-feel. And usually that means I lose (3 out of 4 times). 


Risk management simply means, understanding whether the gains to be had on a certain hand is worth the bet. Is the 25% chance of beating an opponent worth calling his raise? This is something you have to answer for yourself (and don't blame me).


Simple stats to remember: A flush draw (4 suited cards in hand) is 1 in 4. At the turn, you get 2 shots to hit that 1 in 4. At the river, you get one shot. An inside straight draw (straight will be completed with one card in between all your other cards) is 1 in 13. Up and down straight draw (straight will be completed with a card higher of lower than all your current cards) is 2 in 13. If you notice, it is harder to hit a straight draw than a flush draw and flush beats straight. Remember that. Don't go on a raising battle when you've got a straight draw and flush is in play. Chances are, you will lose.

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Read about my exploits as a girl poker player at the Zynga tables on my other blog right here.